You Can Make Plans, You Cannot Plan Results~

March 20, 2021 0 Comments

To start with, when we’re thinking about a SHTF situation, this does not solely mean government collapse or zombie apocalypse. SHTF can happen during natural disasters as well so everyone should have even a short term SHTF disaster plan. For me & mine, although we live our best lives every day, we’ve been AntiFragile for years and at this point, it’s just something we practice as a matter of course, we don’t study it like we did when we first started so I thought taking some time to go and find out what other people are saying in these recent times would be really interesting, and it was. I’m just coming off a full week of what feels like non-stop videos and reading blog posts on SHTF Communities all geared towards the extreme; government collapse and society failing with no mention of natural disasters, so if this post get to sounding like it speaks more to that extreme, it’s just that’s what I’ve been inundated with lately, and quite frankly, if you’re ready for that, you’re more than ready for a month long natural disaster. Natural disasters can create dire situations, too, where your local government can’t get to you in time to helicopter you out or de-ice the roads in time for food & water to be brought in or even maybe just keep the power grid up.

I’m certainly not any kind of final authority on this subject and for my money, how can anyone who has not lived thru SHTF be an authority? Speaking solely as an American, our lives have been lived in peace and prosperity. I don’t think we can even begin to imagine what the people of Iraq, Syria, Venezuela, Guatemala, El Salvador, Yemen, Rwanda, Bosnia, Croatia, etc have actually experienced when governments collapsed and thugs rolled in to fill the vacuum. So, take what you can use here, and leave the rest.

I won’t get down into the weeds on them, or else we’d be here all night, but what I got out of “Your SHTF Community & You” Week could all be boiled down to seeing & hearing the same message again and again. The bullet points might be arranged in a different order, verbiage tweaked here and there, but at the end of the day, they all said pretty much the same thing and it breaks down into basically two different categories of SHTF Communities plus one extra category I added myself, Option C.

A) #ShelterInPlace, make the best of it with where you are and #Godspeed; with recommendations of the first order of business being to get together and begin reconstituting failed state and local government by creating a SHTF City Council to immediately appoint people in oversight roles for water distribution, food/nutritional needs, medical & defense.


B) Buy a membership into an established SHTF planned community in a more or less remote area somewhere that runs the gamut of being completely off-grid to complete with running water and electricity and everything in between. At the moment, these are in reality mostly time-shares where you can go once a year to practice hunting, fishing & living off the land with the promise a space will be there for you in the event of a SHTF event…if you can get there. You may have to fight your way there.

C) Bug Out. Grab your BOB (Bug Out Bag) and as much as you can carry and head for the hills.

Unless you’re an OptionB and have space already booked in a PrePlanned SHTF Community and are planning on getting there well before the SHTF, you will oscillate somewhere between OptionA and OptionC. If disaster strikes, society fails, or the government collapses (See: Portland) and we’re left with uncertainty instead of leadership (See: There Is No Biden Administration), your AntiFragile Tribe will be the very people that you find are surrounding you already on that day. Look around you, for better or worse, these are your peeps. Hopefully, and there’s a better than even chance of this being true, more than one of them are also AntiFragile and will be assets not liabilities. You may not know who exactly has been working on becoming AntiFragile as the first rule of AntiFragile Club is you don’t talk about AntiFragile Club.

Option C, the BugOut~Depending on where you live, and let’s be honest, {cough} large blue cities {cough}, that may be your best option. On the other hand, you abandon your home~your strong point, to go live in a tent in extreme weather and only God knows where. The tent itself can kill you by exposure. Living in the hills may sound like fun but you will be competing with other people for resources and how will you fort up in an area where you have no fixed structure? How do you protect yourself? Maybe a good option if you’re a single person WITH good survival skills, but consider that with a wife, 3 kids and 2 dogs. Picture yourself at a campsite and then think about how many people it would take to protect that campsite from a 360 degree attack…from bears, zombies, thugs, normal people who are starving…you’re gonna need a lot of people. The plan to grab as much as you can carry means that what you can grab will be limited. One day after the food runs out, you’ll be reduced to stealing food wherever you can and that makes you an enemy of the tribe you’re stealing from as it directly threatens their survival. You will be dealt with as a threat just as you and yours would if you catch outliers coming for your food supply.

Going back to Option A, when the natural fight-or-flight response system kicks in, you might decide to “Hunker down and wait for hard times to pass” with a Lone Wolf approach. That might work in the short term, but over time that will be taking a bad situation and making it untenable. The Lone Wolf, will do just fine ~right up to the second he doesn’t. Break a bone, twist an ankle, do anything that prevents you from moving and you’re done. The smallest of cuts can become infected and then it’s game over. Komodo Dragons bring down prey as large as water buffalo not with venom, my friend, but with nasty bacterias they cultivate in their mouths. They bite, leave a spitball of pathogens behind and let blood poisoning do the hard work. Komodo Dragons patiently follow their prey around waiting for it to die of sepsis. Takes about 36 hours for something the size of a water buffalo to die. Fun fact: Komodo Dragons leave bits of carcasses in their mouths to feed the bacteria and encourage their growth, because they know what they’re doing. That’s some uber alles cooperation

The Lone Wolf will have to be on top of his game 24/7 under extreme duress. No one can keep that up indefinitely, you’ll burn out, get tired and start making mistakes. We need back up. We need a tribe. If for nothing more than to be able to sleep and use the restroom in peace, relatively speaking. If society breaks down and law enforcement is gone, opportunistic gangs will fill the void and begin to levy their own taxes ~as happened in the first days immediately after Katrina~ and you will tribe up with whoever is around you. If you have a Gentleman’s Agreement for Mutually Assured Assistance with friends that live across town, made during easy times, they won’t be able to get to you in time nor you to them if/when marauders come in the middle of the night. But you are right there, where you will be needed if marauders come for your neighbor. Certainly, if they succeed when they come for him one night, they’ll come back for you the next so Mutually Assured Assistance agreements within your tribe are more valuable. If you are forced to leave your strong point due to being overrun by gangs, fire, disease, you name it, so will everyone around you. There is safety in numbers on the road and a greater knowledge pool and skill set to draw from. Unless you know exactly where you are going, and are making a beeline right to it and have enough provisions to get you there, forget about being able to move faster alone. Fast doesn’t matter if you don’t know where you’re going.

So now you’ve decided to prepped up and stay, there’s more:

What do you do when/if a starving neighbor knocks on your door desperate for food? My feelings align up exactly with this guy, Ethical Preparedness, and I cannot say it better or clearer than he does here:

To actually be the guy, that essential person more valuable alive than dead inside an AntiFragile SHTF community, you have to be in complete control of yourself. You can’t control those around you in good times anyway. That means the full package~ (Been looking at bullet points for a week…I can’t help myself here)

  1. Mentally: be flexible & willing to learn the ways of the new normal, cultivate patience with yourself and others.
  2. Physically: if you can mitigate a physical condition, do it now, exercise & get into good enough shape to move fast if you have to, get control of substance abuse, you have to understand, this is not the time for to be zoning out and walking around in a fog.
  3. Material: start building caches of provisions, even if its just enough to bring with you if you have to show up at someone else’s door. As your mama taught you, don’t show up empty handed.
  4. Ask for help when you need it. If you injure yourself because you don’t like asking for help, you’re impacting the whole tribe. Give help when asked for the same reasons.
  5. Don’t be a liability any longer than you have to be, become an asset fast as you can.
  6. Cooperate with the tribe.

~Although, I wholeheartedly to not advertise the fact you’re prepping for AntiFragile purposes, I do think its a good idea to begin now and start quietly coaching loved ones who are unable to build a complete self sustaining cache, to do what they can to buy ammo, a bank of heirloom seeds, cases of soap (gold in SHTF times when hygiene is at a premium, the experts assure us) and whatnot. Start to prepare them to be able to bring something of value to the table if they ever have to go knocking, at your door or elsewhere.

It resonated with me when Ethical Preparedness talked about people fully believing the government’s promise of returning to normal any day so they will give themselves permission to act on their desperation in the immediate. They will be scared and desperate to believe life will soon return to normal, and scared people can’t think rationally, they certainly can’t learn to navigate a new normal. Something in the back of my head told me to file that tidbit of info away and I’ve lived long enough to know to pay attention when random bits of information come my way and resonates like that.

I’m remembering when I learned to ski, a friend said to me “It’s important to get thru the geek stage as quickly as possible.” In a real SHTF event, life will change in the blink of an eye, the old normal will be gone. Get thru the geek stage quickly and start thinking fast on your feet.

That’s my TedTalk on the matter, that’s it. Hold your own, be more than just another hungry mouth to feed, see to the needs of your family first then your tribe and do your utmost to see to it they make it thru alive. Start now to hone your gut instincts to be aware of the people around you that come & go. Some will settle out and become a tribe member, others I’ll learn to stay away from. This is a lot to take in so let information roll over you in bits & pieces, it’s a marathon not a sprint: Where the imagination flows, the energy goes.

And that’s Lone Wolf enough for me.

God bless~


March 14, 2021
April 14, 2021

Jypsea Rose